analytics

DIG-IN Intelligence

Papa Johns · Setúbal · June 2026
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insights

Executive Summary

São Sebastião lidera com 86/100 — 52.627 hab., largest critical mass in the municipality, only 2 pizza players in mall/sit-in format. The strategic decision is about location: a store on the Setúbal central axis covers São Sebastião (virgin pizza delivery market) and Bonfim simultaneously, where Telepizza and Domino's have weak ratings and no quality differentiation.

Venues Analysed

1.248

Setúbal municipality

Pop. S. Sebastião

52.627

Largest subzone · Census 2021

Direct pizza S.Seb.

2

Both Pizza Hut · mall/sit-in

Burgers S.Seb.

3

MCD ×2 + Burger King

Central Axis Score

86/100

S.Sebastião + Bonfim coverage

Market Gap Score by Subzone

Weighting: critical mass (40%) + inverse pizza saturation (35%) + competition rating (15%) + delivery coverage (10%)

São Sebastião ★ 52,627 res. · 2 pizza players · burgers dominant
86

Highest critical mass + pizza delivery-first gap = maximum opportunity

Bonfim / Centro 37,757 res. · Telepizza + Domino's · quality gap
72

Demonstrated pizza demand · weak-rated competition — quality gap to exploit

Azeitão 20,946 res. · 1 player (Pizza Hut)
52

Limited critical mass · eventual phase 2 expansion

Praias / ArrábidaSeasonal · 0 confirmed players
41
Sado / Gâmbia5,357 res. · industrial
22

Opportunity Indicators · Central Axis

Pizza Saturation Gap91 / 100

Only 2 pizza chains for 52,627 residents — 0 with delivery-first positioning

Burger vs. Pizza DominanceBurger 3 vs Pizza 2

McDonald's ×2 + Burger King dominate QSR — premium pizza with no real competition

Rating Deficit (direct pizza)Gap Present

Pizza Hut positioned as sit-in/mall — does not serve the delivery-first segment

Delivery Coverage Gap82 / 100

No pizza chain with active delivery-first operation in S. Sebastião

Cannibalisation Risk0%

~25km from PJ Barreiro store · no delivery zone overlap

PJ Portugal Context

6 confirmed active stores — all in Greater Lisbon (Amoreiras, Areeiro, Benfica, Odivelas, Barreiro, Amadora). No presence in Setúbal. Expansion to strategic cities under evaluation.

info

Setúbal Cluster — Revised Competitive Context

São Sebastião (52,627 res.) has only 2 pizza players in mall/sit-in format with burgers dominating QSR — total pizza delivery-first gap. Bonfim (37,757 res.) has demonstrated pizza demand but weak-rated competition (3.8–3.9★) — quality gap. A well-positioned store on the central axis captures both markets.

Total Venues

486

S. Sebastião

Pizza Players

2

Both Pizza Hut · mall

Burger Players

3

MCD ×2 + BK

Delivery-First Pizza

0

Gap to explore

Central Axis Score

86/100

Territorial Analysis by Subzone

5 Active Zones
Subzona Pop. Pizza Burger/QSR Score
São Sebastião ★ 52.627 2 (mall/sit-in) 3 (MCD×2, BK) 86
Bonfim / Centro 37.757 4 · weak ratings (3.8–3.9★) 1 (MCD) 72
Azeitão 20.946 1 (Pizza Hut) 0 52
Praias / Arrábida Seasonal 0 0 41
Sado / Gâmbia 5.357 1 (Telepizza) 0 22

Competitive Ranking

São Sebastião — Pizza

Pizza HutPizza · Mall

Av. Bento Gonçalves 16 · sit-in

4,0★

616 rev.

Pizza Hut AlegroPizza · Mall

CC Alegro · sit-in

4,7★

299 rev.

São Sebastião — Burger / QSR

McDonald's AlegroBurger

CC Alegro, Loja 1.001-1.002

4,0★

1.499 rev.

McDonald's Monte BeloBurger

Estrada de Algeruz, 2910-279

3,4★

126 rev.

Burger KingBurger

Praça da Independência 18

3,6★

3.629 rev.

Bonfim / Centro — Pizza · quality gap

Pizzaria do BonfimLocal Hero

Largo Dr. Francisco Soveral 10 · Uber Eats 22min

4,4★

2.353 rev.

Domino'sPizza · Chain

Av. Combatentes da Grande Guerra 57

3,8★

322 rev.

Telepizza SetúbalPizza · Chain

Av. Dr. António Rodrigues Manito 97B

3,9★

622 rev.

Others

Pizza Hut AzeitãoPizza · Chain

Rua Família Bronze, EN10 · Brejos de Azeitão

4,0★

475 rev.

Telepizza Poço de MouroPizza · Chain

EN10, Galeria Intermarché, 2910-298

3,8★

96 rev.

McDonald's DriveBurger

Estr. de Palmela c/ Av. da Europa, 2900-717

4,1★

4.710 rev.

McDonald's CentroBurger

Av. Luísa Todi 214, 2900-452 · Bonfim

4,0★

3.452 rev.

Confirmed Players by Subzone

Address mapping · June 2026
Subzona Venue Category Address Rating Aggregators
São Sebastião — 5 players (2 pizza mall · 3 burger)
Pizza Hut Pizza · Mall Av. Bento Gonçalves 16, 2910-431 4,0★ · 616 rev. Uber Eats
Pizza Hut Alegro Pizza · Mall CC Alegro, Loja 1.045, Av. Antero de Quental 2 4,7★ · 299 rev. Uber Eats
McDonald's Alegro Burger CC Alegro, Loja 1.001-1.002, Av. Antero de Quental 2 4,0★ · 1.499 rev. Uber Eats + Glovo
McDonald's Monte Belo Burger Estrada de Algeruz, 2910-279 3,4★ · 126 rev. Not confirmed
Burger King Burger Praça da Independência 18, 2910-618 3,6★ · 3.629 rev. Uber Eats + Glovo
Bonfim / Centro — 4 players (pizza quality gap)
Pizzaria do Bonfim Local Hero Largo Dr. Francisco Soveral 10 4,4★ · 2.353 rev. Uber Eats · 22min
Domino's Pizza · Chain Av. Combatentes da Grande Guerra 57, 2900-329 3,8★ · 322 rev. Glovo + Uber Eats
Telepizza Pizza · Chain Av. Dr. António Rodrigues Manito 97B, 2900-068 3,9★ · 622 rev. Glovo + Uber Eats
McDonald's Centro Burger Av. Luísa Todi 214, 2900-452 4,0★ · 3.452 rev. Uber Eats + Glovo
Azeitão — 1 player
Pizza Hut Brejos de Azeitão Pizza · Chain Rua Família Bronze, junto Continente EN10 4,0★ · 475 rev. Uber Eats
North / Peripheral Zone — 2 players
McDonald's Drive Burger Estr. de Palmela c/ Av. da Europa, 2900-717 4,1★ · 4.710 rev. Uber Eats + Glovo
Telepizza Poço de Mouro Pizza · Chain EN10, Galeria Intermarché, 2910-298 3,8★ · 96 rev. Not confirmed
Beaches / Arrábida — 0 confirmed players
stars

Recommendation: Setúbal Central Axis

A decisão não é São Sebastião vs. Bonfim — é onde dentro de Setúbal uma loja consegue cobrir os dois mercados com um único raio operacional. O central axis entre as duas zonas (Av. Luísa Todi / Largo Defensores da República) maximiza cobertura: captura os 52.627 hab. de São Sebastião onde não existe pizza delivery-first, e simultaneamente entra em Bonfim para competir com Telepizza e Domino's com vantagem clara de qualidade (ratings 3,8–3,9★).

RECOMMENDATION: GO — CENTRAL AXIS
Combined score: 86/100

Strategic Notes — Location Variants

location_on Variant A — Central Axis (recommended)

Location in the corridor between Bonfim and São Sebastião enables dual operational coverage. Delivery radius reaches both markets. Enters without direct premium pizza competition in São Sebastião and with quality advantage in Bonfim against Telepizza/Domino's. Maximum capture position with a single store.

location_on Variant B — Inner São Sebastião

Peripheral location within São Sebastião (e.g. Alegro area) captures the largest critical mass in the municipality but loses Bonfim coverage. Virgin pizza delivery market, no direct competition — lower competitive pressure but also lower demonstrated demand. Valid option if available space is in this area.

Nota: The final decision depends on the exact location available on the ground. Either variant constitutes a GO for Setúbal.

directions_run

Mobility & Footfall

São Sebastião lidera em volume absoluto (52.627 hab.) e Bonfim concentra tráfego comercial denso — os dois mercados-alvo do central axis. Pico de mobilidade às 12–13h e 19–21h em ambas as zonas.

S. Sebastião · Est. Vol.

42–50M

movements/year · peak 12–13h

Bonfim · Est. Vol.

12–15M

movements/year · peak 19–20h

Dwell · Central Axis

info Average dwell time — time a user spends in an area before moving. Higher dwell favours purchase decisions and delivery.

52min

Bonfim52min
S. Sebastião42min

Combined profile

Resid.

65–72% residents in both zones

Hourly Traffic — São Sebastião vs. Bonfim

Distinct hourly profiles — complementary for delivery coverage.

São Sebastião · Residential

8h
10h
12h★
13h
15h
18h
19h
21h
23h

Pico dominante: lunch 12–13h · residential profile · Saturday = peak day

Bonfim · Commercial

8h
10h
12h
13h
15h
18h
19h★
20h
23h

Pico dominante: dinner 19–20h · commercial profile · dwell 52min

Combined reading: Os dois mercados têm perfis horários complementares — S. Sebastião concentra procura ao almoço, Bonfim ao jantar. Uma loja no central axis com cobertura dual tem janelas de pico alargadas ao longo do dia, maximizando utilização da capacidade de delivery.

Footfall Volume by Subzone

Annual movement estimate. Proportional scale across zones.

São Sebastião Eixo Central
42–50M/ano
52,627 res. · residential · peak 12–13hdwell 42min
Azeitão Lazer
18–22M/ano
20,946 res. · leisure/rural · peak 19hdwell 68min
Bonfim / Centro Eixo Central
12–15M/ano
37,757 res. · commercial · peak 19–20hdwell 52min · longest stay
Praias / Arrábida Seasonal
8–12M/ano
Seasonal · turistas 35–40% verão · pico 18hdwell 38min
Sado / Gâmbia Industrial
5–8M/ano
5,357 res. · industrial · pico 8hdwell 25min

Nota: S. Sebastião and Bonfim marked as Central Axis — captured by a single well-positioned store. Combined estimated volume: 54–65M movements/year.

Cannibalisation Analysis

Ref. store Barreiro

~25km

Rua Miguel Bombarda 224B

Overlap w/ Barreiro

0%

Cannibalisation risk

Nulo

Setúbal operates as a completely independent market. The operational zones of existing stores in Almada/Barreiro have no overlap with Setúbal city.

Volume acessível central axis: S. Sebastião (42–50M) + Bonfim (12–15M) = 54–65M movements/year capturable with a single store on the central corridor.

model_training

Predictive Model — Demonstração

This module demonstrates DIG-IN modelling capability. Real forecasts require integration of historical sales data under NDA.

Model Variables

Dynamic Footfall Available
Local Competition (differentiated cat.) Available
Public Reviews Available
Historical Sales NDA Required
Delivery Performance NDA Required

Cluster Match: A+ — São Sebastião (virgin pizza delivery, burger-dominant) and Bonfim (demonstrated demand, weak-rated competition) form a dual opportunity cluster. Markets with this combined profile consistently outperform benchmarks for delivery-first chains. Forecast available after proprietary data integration.

Growth Forecast — 24 Months

Simulation of real data activation impact vs. market benchmarks

Forecast with real data Market benchmark

Forecast activated after integration of historical sales data

Contact DIG-IN team to begin integration process.

NDA Activation Protocol

1

Non-Disclosure Agreement Signature

Full legal protection over billing and operations data.

2

Historical Sales Data Integration

Secure CSV/API data upload for model calibration.

3

Processing & Feature Engineering

Our algorithms cross your data with 120+ DIG-IN geographic layers.

4

High-Precision Model Delivery

Performance forecast with market-validated confidence interval.